Before October: China's export growth slowed down year-on-year

The year-on-year growth of China's exports slowed down from January to October. The total value of China's imports and exports was US$ 239.31 billion, which was an increase of 36.3% over the same period of last year. The scale of imports and exports exceeded the level of the previous year. Among them, the export and import scale also exceeded the level of last year's full year respectively. Exports reached 1,270.59 billion U.S. dollars, up 32.7%; imports were 1,122.82 billion U.S. dollars, up 40.5%; trade surpluses were 147.77 billion U.S. dollars, down 6.7%.

In October, China’s import and export value was US$244.81 billion, an increase of 24%. Among them, exports were 135.98 billion U.S. dollars, up 22.9%, 2.2 percentage points slower than the previous month; imports were 108.83 billion U.S. dollars, up 25.3%, 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous month. From 48.5% in May, 43.9% in June, to 38.1% in July, to 34.4% in August, 25.1% in September and 22.9% in October, China’s monthly foreign trade export growth rate has been consecutively five. Fall months.

Although China's exports have been hit by the economic crisis, the physical quantity of exports has fallen below the decline in value, which means that the export capacity of enterprises has been protected; the share of major international markets has risen instead of falling, which will be crucial for the recovery of foreign trade.

The recovery of the world economy has also led to the massive export of Chinese electromechanical equipment, which is closely related to investment. In the first 10 months, China’s export of electromechanical products was US$750.42 billion, an increase of 32.9%, which was 0.2 percentage points higher than China’s overall export growth over the same period and accounted for 59.1% of China’s total exports during the same period. Among them, the export of electrical and electronic products was US$309.42 billion, an increase of 30.7%; the export of machinery and equipment was US$250.7 billion, an increase of 33.8%. During the same period, exports of textile yarns, fabrics, and products accounted for 62.62 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 29.4 percent over the previous nine months, and a decline of 1.3 percentage points over the previous nine months. Furniture exports reached 26.3 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 32.8%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points; Toys exported 8.4 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 28.9%, a drop of 1 percentage point. In the same period, garment exports reached US$105 billion, an increase of 19.5%, which was a 0.5 percentage point increase over the previous nine months; shoe exports were US$27.66 billion, an increase of 26.4%, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points; and baggage exports were US$14.18 billion, an increase of 39%, accelerating 2.2 percentage point. The related beneficiary industry will perform in the stock market.

At present, China has formed a high level of industrial accumulation on a global scale, which greatly reduces the cost and time of the transaction. This provided China with the basis for successfully digesting pressures such as rising raw material prices, rising wages, and exchange rate appreciation. Strong digestion is our strong point compared to other emerging economies.

The export of 2010 will be a recovering growth trend. This year's exports show a trend of “high before and low,” and in the fourth quarter, China’s export speed has slowed down. China ranks first in the world in terms of export scale over Germany. It only shows that China has become a major trading country. However, from the perspective of the structure of export products, independent innovation capability and core competitiveness of the industry, China is still far from a trade power. China must vigorously adjust its structure and change its mode of growth. The rapid decline in the proportion of labor-intensive products indicates that the inherent resource structure of China’s economy is changing. The change in the structure of resource endowments is reflected in the fact that monetary funds have become cheaper in the economy, and labor and resource prices have risen in trend. China’s labor structure created by low-cost dividends has come to an end. Since 2003, the declining share of the working-age population has caused the labor market to change from "infinite supply" to "limited surplus." In the context of shortages, the increase in labor prices has made the era of cheap labor unrecoverable and will eventually translate into product costs. This year, the labor and raw material costs have risen by more than 10%, and the costs of raw materials, transportation, etc. have risen sharply. The profit margins of foreign trade companies have been squeezed, which has also weakened the international competitiveness of our products.

The government will gradually reduce preferential policies for exports and foreign investment, guide resources to be invested in the domestic and foreign economic sectors in a balanced manner, and achieve overall and coordinated development of the domestic economy and the foreign economy. From the perspective of economic restructuring, China will work hard to reduce its dependence on foreign countries. The series of measures introduced during the crisis to boost exports are likely to not meet the needs of structural transformation. A series of export tax rebate adjustment policies issued during the crisis were withdrawn. Since July 15th, export refunds for certain steel products, pharmaceuticals, chemical products, and non-ferrous metal processing materials have been cancelled, involving a total of 406 kinds. Some industries may be adversely affected by this.